Submitted by Wayne Allyn Root on Monday, June 29, 2015 at 4:21 PM
Wayne Root: How to Find "Surprise" Teams in the 2015 NFL Season
The past two weeks we've talked about preparing for the 2015 college football season here in my web articles. This time, we move to the NFL. I'm not going to get specific about which teams WAYNE ALLYN ROOT believes might take the league by storm this season. I need to protect that information for my paying clients! But, I will outline strategies YOU should be using to find big money teams who may catch oddsmakers napping.
First, the most successful "surprise" teams invariably involve an "us against the world" mentality that is either driven by a head coach or a cast of young talent coming into their own. You rarely see veteran teams with longstanding head coaches "surprise" anybody because they're such a known quantity entering the season. Surprises come when the stars align just right for a franchise to take a big step forward.
With that in mind...
- Look at first-year and second-year head coaches with their current franchise, and try to determine which are most likely to expire a big move THIS season. Some newcomers will just be building their foundations this season before really getting in gear in 2016. You want to isolate which teams are best-suited for 2015 surprises.
- Look at the key skill-position players (particularly quarterback and wide receiver) to see which youngsters are moving along the learning curve in a meaningful manner. For this particular exercise, eliminate any quarterback who's been with his team for at least five seasons, or is a longtime veteran like Peyton Manning who can win anywhere. Which younger quarterbacks are on pace to "arrive" in 2015? Which younger quarterbacks have a set of receivers who can turn any catch into a big play?
- Look at defenses because defense wins championships! It's very hard to be a big "surprise" team in a given season if you have a lousy defense. Even if the offense "arrives," that just means a lot of 31-28 shootouts unless the defense scares people. Seattle made a big step forward fairly quickly because their defense stepped up and dominated the sport. Look at teams who were 8-8 or worse last year and rank them on a yards-per-game and yards-per-play defense. Focus on the best defenses, and be skeptical about the worst defenses. (PS: I think the biggest mistake novice sports bettors make is that they pay too much attention to quarterback stats and not enough on the defenses who scare quarterbacks).
Another key area I like to focus on involves injuries. Any team suffering bad injury luck in one season lowers expectations in such a way that they can really jump forward the next season when everyone is healthy. Oddsmakers underrate them. The media underrates them. Their first month of opponents don't take them seriously enough. A team that went 6-10 because of injuries could easily jump to 10-6 this year just by staying healthy. And, that's going to occur when the world is thinking of them as a 6-10 team entering the new season! Great betting potential.
So, obviously, you should go back and review which teams in 2014 were ravaged by injuries. It's easy to remember the quarterback position (and you should definitely include that position in your analysis). But, be sure you're looking at places like the offensive line and defensive secondary. The modern game revolves around the pass. Teams who kept losing linemen or cornerbacks are going to look better this year if they stay healthy.
Finally today, use the Super Bowl Futures Prices! Generally speaking, the teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl can't possibly take anyone by surprise because they're already so highly thought of. That means you should focus on the next tier of teams who have a chance to rise up and compete for the playoffs...and then the bottom tiers of teams who at least have the chance to offer pointspread value as they climb up off the mat.
There are many places online where you can get odds. Here's a brief synopsis of the market's consensus right now.
Biggest Favorites (better than 10/1): Seattle, Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis.
Other Championship Threats (from 10/1 to 25/1): Denver, Dallas, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh.
Tweeners: (26/1 to 50/1): Arizona, Miami, Detroit, San Diego, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Carolina, San Francisco, Kansas City, NY Giants, Atlanta, New Orleans, Houston, St. Louis.
Longshots: (51/1 to 99/1): Minnesota, Chicago, NY Jets, Cleveland, Washington.
Big Longshots: (100/1 or worse): Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee.
Here's a challenge for you. Try to pick at least 2-3 teams from the "tweeners" category, and then one each from the two "longshot" categories who have a chance to catch oddsmakers by surprise out of the gate based on the parameters we discussed today. Who are the "chip on a shoulder" teams who will "arrive" because of young talent and a difference-making head coach?
We'll have plenty of time to talk more about the NFL in coming weeks. The Preseason will be here before you know it! In the meantime, we need to keep building our bankrolls with summer baseball. You can purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS during normal business hours.
Make this your biggest Las Vegas betting year ever! It's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!