Submitted by Wayne Allyn Root on Thursday, August 20, 2015 at 6:37 PM
Wayne Root: Tips from THE KING OF UPSETS for Finding NFLX Dogs
Earlier this week, I mentioned to you that I'm 67% so far in the NFL Preseason...with winners on Minnesota -3.5 over Pittsburgh 14-3 in the Hall of Fame Game, San Diego -3.5 over Dallas 17-7, Houston -2.5 over San Francisco 23-10, and Philadelphia -4 over Indianapolis 36-10. You longtime readers may have been wondering...why hasn't THE KING OF UPSETS been picking many upsets?!
Did you see how few dogs won their games last week? It was clear that the best betting value was on teams who were positioned to perform well but who had been underestimated by oddsmakers. This isn't yet a great hunting ground for dogs!
Here's a quick list of last week's meaningful upsets:
Green Bay (+2.5) beat New England 22-11
Carolina (+3) beat Buffalo 25-24
Denver (+4.5) beat Seattle 22-20
Kansas City (+2.5) beat Arizona 34-19
There were some other dogs closer to pick-em at game time who also won (like Washington over Cleveland 20-17 in a game that closed at pick-em). But, the list above were the only games that jump out as meaningful. Interesting that both Super Bowl teams show up as losers...as each seemed to be dealing with a letdown and other distractions.
Also of note, HOME teams went 11-5 last week. Home teams are typically favorites in the Preseason because there's so much parity amongst all the back-ups. It's hard to find visitors who are well-positioned to win your bets. Think about it this way...only THREE visitors last week managed to win outright as visitors in games that DIDN'T involve the Super Bowl letdown teams.
Will the same thing happen this week? Well, let me ask you this. If you're on the road this week...and your dress rehearsal game is just around the corner...how much are you going to emphasize this week's performance? A few coaches will. But, it will take a trained eye to find the best upset spots. And, honestly, those spots may be more about a very disinterested host rather than a motivated visitor.
Even though I usually endorse betting underdogs because the market typically overrates favorites...I'm the only man with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas because I know how to go with the flow! I won't force underdogs when it's not warranted. I'll gladly back them plus the points and on the moneyline when upset potential is at the highest. Favorites are usually overrated because of public betting anyway...and the public doesn't bet much in the Preseason!
For potential underdog covers or upsets this week, I believe the following factors will be in play:
*The visitor has backup quarterbacks who will be playing hard
*The visitor is coming off a bad result last week and doesn't want to repeat it
*The host is coming off a great result and is in a natural letdown position
*The host is established at key backup positons and will just grind the clock
I'll talk more about the dress rehearsals next week. But, in terms of advance planning...you can treat most of those like regular season games. Look for quality dogs with legitimate matchup advantages...and head coaches who are inspired to send a message in the most important minutes of August.
This week...my classic "don't make sense" approach might be a great guideline for several plays. Nobody will want to touch last week's worst teams with a 10-foot pole. Some of them will bounce back with much better performances. Nobody will want to fade teams who looked great last week. But, those are the teams most likely to let down because they've already celebrated a big result. Week Two isn't necessarily going to be a replay of Week One in terms of the best and worst team performances.
I have some very big plans for the next two weeks of NFLX action. That 67% start was just a warm up! You can purchase game day football or seasonal packages right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS during normal business hours. Don't forget to ask about baseball when you call. I won't talk about baseball much more on the web until the playoffs get here. But, you really should be cashing tickets SEVEN DAYS A WEEK instead of just on the football days.
I'll see you again next week to talk more football. Will there be any big upsets this weekend in the NFL? I'll tell you this...some oddsmakers are going to be very upset about the games I release! That means it's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!