Submitted by Wayne Allyn Root on Wednesday, November 18, 2015 at 3:47 PM
Wayne Root: Finding Upsets in Early College Hoops Action
College basketball has started up again...which means it's time for WAYNE ALLYN ROOT to talk to you about picking early season upsets. I'm not going to talk about specific teams because I need to keep my strongest upcoming possibilities quiet for my paying customers. But, I'm happy to talk about general handicapping principals that will help you make great underdog picks and upset calls through November and December.
*First, you want to FADE highly regarded teams from last season who lost a lot of starters. Go through late season Top 25 rankings online, and review the Big Dance. Any team who was prominent in the national consciousness late last season is going to be respected by the markets entering 2015-2016. It always happens that way, even when it's not justified. You need to find the situations where it's not justified and take advantage.
I should also mention that you should fade short term success stories from last season who saw their head coach hired away. Even if they return starters...they may fall way back because the brains behind the operation is no longer there. A major key to finding upsets in this sport is isolating overrated teams who just endured an important change.
*Next, you want to TAKE up-and-coming teams who are poised to take a step forward this season. That's usually "B" teams on the report card who return a lot of talent. But, it can also be lesser lights who happened to recruit a superstar...or programs who got rid of a bad coach and replaced him with a good one. It usually takes the market a few weeks to catch up to these dynamics. You should be cashing underdog bets until it happens.
*Once you feel comfortable with your assessments of talent and coaching, you want to hone in on HOME DOG spots where the host is going to be fired up because it's one of their most important games of the season...while the road favorite could come in overconfident or otherwise flat. A great example of this happened a few nights ago when George Washington shocked Virginia. GW played like it was their game of the year. Virginia played like they had never heard of George Washington. Look for talented mid-majors at home vs. high profile visitors who may have spent too much time reading press hype over the past month.
*Finally, be aware of the kinds of basketball that works best in neutral site games...and jump on underdogs well suited to thrive in all the "tournament" or "TV showcase" spots. It's amazing how often the teams who were "supposed" to win events in Maui or the Caribbean don't even make it to the finals. That's because...
Officiating is less friendly to powers at neutral sites
Defense and rebounding matter more
Three-point production is harder to maintain because of odd shooting backdrops
Coaches who pad their records with soft home schedules have nowhere to hide!
In the not-too-distant past, I would emphasize home underdogs in November and December. Once the TV schedule exploded with all of these neutral court games...the number of home dog opportunities disappeared because top coaches tried to avoid road games. You can still fade them in the right spots and score outright victories that will have the studio pundits scratching their heads.
I should tell you that I'm fairly conservative with basketball action right out of the gate. Some bettors prefer a high volume figuring that their edges will grind out a profit over time. I'm not looking to grind. I want to find the best bet on the board and hit it hard. If that means passing on college basketball some nights, so be it. My customers only get the best options! You should apply that thinking to your own approach. Try to be picky and focus on underdogs that truly have upset potential. Even if they don't win outright, they can still cover the spread for you.
You can always purchase my best basketball and football plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. This is a great time to check on combination packages that include everything in my portfolio.
See you again in a few days to talk about the big Green Bay/Minnesota game this Sunday in the NFL. Are the Vikings about to go on a SHOCK THE NATION tour that will see them winning the NFC North on the way to a strong January run? Green Bay's recent slide has opened the door for potentially shocking NFC champs like Arizona, Carolina, or even Minnesota (plus whoever survives the NFC East!). You know that's right up my alley.
THE KING OF LAS VEGAS is ready to help you win seven days a week in any of the major betting spots. That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!