Submitted by Wayne Allyn Root on Monday, December 14, 2015 at 12:49 PM
Wayne Root: Finding Upsets in Early College Bowls
For many years, you could simply site ANY early bowl as a possible upset! The longtime rule of thumb was to bet the underdogs in all the early bowls...because the favorites were usually disappointed to be in a minor attraction. Then, you'd turn around bet the favorites in the marquee bowls when everyone "showed up" and talent won out.
That approach wouldn't win every game of course. But, you'd win more than you lost...and in some seasons you'd make a killing.
As the number of bowl games has been rising through the years...that approach took a surprising hit. You'd think there would be even less motivation for all of these favorites! But, what was happening was that some underdogs in the early bowls were SO BAD that they couldn't take advantage of the situation. Favorites would come in flat...but lousy dogs got bulldozed anyway. They didn't really deserve to play in a bowl in the first place...and proved it with big losses.
Nowadays, handicappers have to be picky. There are still plenty of favorites to fade. But, you generally DON'T want to fade the following:
*Favorites who are excited to have made a bowl, even if it's minor
*Favorites who are trying to make a national statement in their bowl
*Favorites who are playing to save a popular head coach's job
*Favorites who can run up the score with a top notch quarterback
*Favorites with a lot of seniors who want to go out on a high note
Calling for upsets against any of those is dicey at best, deranged at worst! You want to bet on teams who have clear motivation to play well...particularly if those teams have matchup advantages vs. an outmanned opponent.
However, you can confidently fade the following favorites...
*Fade favorites who are depressed to have "settled" for this bowl
*Fade favorites who lost a demoralizing season finale
*Fade favorites who stopped playing hard for this coach in November
*Fade favorites who just lost their head coach to a bigger program
*Fade favorites who run a lot, against defenses who are good against the run
*Fade favorites who pass a lot, against defenses who force mistakes
*Fade favorites who rank in the bottom half nationally in defensive yards-per-play
*Fade favorites who played in the same bowl last year, or the year before
*Fade favorites who are making a short trip to a city that doesn't excite them
I've always told you in my web articles that picking upsets isn't just about the underdog. Finding the right favorites to go against is half the battle...sometimes more.
Now, let's talk about the right kinds of underdogs to take...
*Take underdogs who are excited to be in this bowl
*Take underdogs who can SCORE, because you have to score to win
*Take underdogs who can get stops and force punts defensively
*Take underdogs who are fighting to save a popular head coach's job
*Take underdogs who are facing opponents from a "better" or more hyped conference
*Take underdogs who just enjoyed a breakout season, and want to cap it off with a big result
Whenever the stars align with the right kind of underdog against the perfect favorite to fade, you have a "Game of the Year" caliber selection. Even when the stars don't align, you will be betting for value if you focus on my bullet points.
For a lot of you...covering all of these bases is going to take a lot of work. If you're like most college football fans, you've been watching the big TV games each weak involving "name" teams from the power conferences. You have no idea whether Toledo or Temple is excited to be in the Boca Raton Bowl. You don't know either the strengths or weaknesses of Georgia State and San Jose State in the Auto Nation Bowl in Orlando.
What do you do in these cases? Don't bet! The worst thing you can do is to try to bet every bowl because you want action on the board whenever there's a football game on TV. WAYNE ALLYN ROOT didn't become THE KING OF LAS VEGAS by being reckless! You won't find success with your personal portfolio if you bet that way either.
Try to stick with the teams you know. Try to find the most obvious "excited to be hear" or "depressed to be here" situations. Review everyone's November results so you're in synch with their recent form.
Of course, the easiest way to win is to bet the games I'm betting! You can always purchase my BEST BETS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. This is a great time to get your ducks in a row for the full college bowl package and the rest of the NFL. Basketball can be added to any football program at an affordable rate.
The annual BOWL BONANZA begins this Saturday. As always, LAS VEGAS is very much front and center on opening day. BYU vs. Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl is the most appealing matchup of that first Saturday...and arguably the whole first week!
Set a winning tone early and keep pyramiding those profits. It's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!