Submitted by Wayne Allyn Root on Tuesday, August 26, 2014 at 9:18 PM
CASHING IN ON EARLY SEASON COLLEGE FAVORITES
by Wayne Allyn Root
It is said that the most important 2 weeks for the Vegas Oddsmakers are the first 2 weeks of college football. But it's not with what you think. I'm not sure that there is a time in any sport and certainly in college football that is better for making money than the first two or three weeks of the non-conference season.
The oddsmakers don't have the team strengths down "cold" so early in the season, so they create what's called "soft" numbers. I'm not saying you can load up the wagon with free money, but this is your chance to gain an edge…WITH THE ADVICE OF THE RIGHT PROFESSIONAL HANDICAPPER.
Professional handicappers like myself have a staff, history, experience and longevity on my side when "knowing what to look for." To cash in, though, you have to know where to look, and you have to be willing to put in the work that most bettors just don't have the time for. That's where I come in. Here are four places where college football handicappers can often find nice value in the early non-conference season.
1) Week 2 games:
If there is a blowout in week 1, then look at possibly betting against that team in week 2. On the other side of the coin is if a college team loses in an upset, look to bet on that team in week 2. I'm not saying it's an automatic bet, but I look at the public money on these two occasions because the public bets "what they just saw."
2) New Quarterback:
When last year's superstar QB graduates, there may be a letdown in terms of talent. Or maybe not. Georgia's Aaron Murray left for the NFL, so do you really know the level of his replacement? That's the information gathered from spring and summer practices that are necessary for the successful handicapper. Some of the questions I ask are, has the replacement QB played meaningful action in the past? Has he spent a lot of time with the program? Is the offense particularly suited to his skills? As for coming out of the box for game 1, is it an intricate, demanding offense, or are there things a QB can do learn quickly?
3) Offensive line:
This is an area I guarantee that few non-pro handicappers look to analyze. The offensive line is responsible for so much in the game of football. If the offensive line plays well, then the quarterback has time to relax and establish a passing game, the running game can become a force, and the defense gets a chance to rest and won't be forced to constantly play from behind. The preseason in college football is short and lacking real game action, so it can take a few games for new starters to get comfortable with the schemes, their teammates, and the speed of the game. Bottom line is to look for experience.
4) Non-BCS teams looking for blood:
The non-conference football schedule always features major conference teams scheduling games against cupcake teams. Those games feature huge lines, and the public assumes that the major conference team – almost always playing at home – will cruise to an easy win. The betting public will assume that a team isn't going to be competitive if they come from a minor conference and are fairly obscure. Most public bettors will assume that the major conference football teams will win easily, so if the small conference team plays over their head, you are getting "value" (loads of extra points).
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