Submitted by Wayne Allyn Root on Saturday, June 6, 2015 at 11:49 AM
Wayne Root: What's Up with the Minnesota Twins?!
The biggest surprise so far in the Major League Baseball season is easily the performance of the Minnesota Twins. They were supposed to be the worst team in the American League by at least 4-5 games based on the "Regular Season Victory" propositions that were available for Las Vegas betting back in March. Instead, they enter their weekend series at home against the Milwaukee Brewers as one of the most successful teams in baseball.
How can the market miss a team by that much?
Well, THE KING OF UPSETS is here to tell you that you have to be very careful assuming that a short-term outlier can continue. I think it's safe to say that Minnesota is better than expected. But, there's still time for a slump to knock the team back near the .500 mark. Two more slumps before the end of September...and the Twinkies could be finishing near the 71-91 mark the "experts" were predicting.
What I love about the Twins so far:
*Great relief pitching, the hidden key to current "shockers" in this sport
*Great attitude...this is a team with a chip on its shoulder playing with enthusiasm
*They play in a mediocre league!
It's easiest to go from worst to first so-to-speak in a condensed league that has a lot of parity. With the end of the steroid era, we also have the end of the "rich teams can buy championships" era in many ways. When there are juggernauts, nobody who was a "worst" has a real chance to go to "first." When there aren't juggernauts (the closest thing to juggernauts right now are Kansas City and Houston!), then it's much more possible.
Minnesota's bullpen and team enthusiasm have allowed them to get results during a relatively dead time in the American League (particularly compared to recent seasons). I still believe there will be value spots going forward because of those characteristics. But, the line is catching up to Minnesota, and the laws of math are as well.
What I don't like about Minnesota:
*Mediocre offense that's been a bit lucky with production
*Favorable record in one-run games (unlikely to hold up over time)
*Starting rotation that probably can't control its own destiny
Let me focus on the rotation. Both Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson have great ERA's (2.59 and 2.61 respectively as I write this) but horrible strikeout rates (4.12 and 4.35 respectively). It's very tough to continually coax outs from baseballs that are put into play. It's easier to do that in 2015 because of smarter defense...and fewer hit balls leaving the yard in the post-steroid era. But, still, a team is playing with fire when asking low K-rate pitchers to have great seasons.
Behind Pelfrey and Gibson, you have Trevor May (4.45 ERA), Phil Hughes (4.96 ERA), and Ricky Nolasco (5.51 ERA). Frankly, that's a recipe for disaster (slumps!) if and when Pelfrey and Gibson fall back to earth. Even with a great bullpen, and a great team attitude...the laws of baseball math aren't smiling on the Twins.
In other words, this isn't a team that's secretly GREAT who is likely to make a historic run at the pennant. It's an improved team that's taking advantage of opportunities for the time being.
Smart bettors like you and me have to take advantage for as long as "the time being" is relevant. We also have to be ready to ride another horse when fortunes change.
As THE KING OF UPSETS, I'm always on the lookout for great value situations. In baseball, "upsets" mean underdogs who can win games. We're not talking about football or basketball teams who can hang close and cover a number. You have to WIN THE GAME in baseball to get the money. The Twins have done a great job of that so far as underdogs and cheap favorites. Enjoy that as long as it lasts. Just remember to keep an eye out for other teams who may start to do that this month after making some key changes or getting healthy.
If you'd like to cash smart value plays every night...purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS during normal business hours. Remember to ask about combination packages that include both baseball and the NBA Finals that pick up again Sunday and will run through the next week (or two).
The Twins have been a great story so far...in a season that may see a few "surprise" teams reach the playoffs in the American League. The most enduring story in the world of sports handicapping has always involved the only man in the industry to have a star on the Vegas "Walk of Fame." It's time you hooked up with WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!