Handicappers
  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 09:28:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Cardinals' Tony Jefferson
    forgot he played vs. Eagles
    after concussion

    Arizona Cardinals safety Tony
    Jefferson said he doesn't remember
    playing against the Eagles after he
    suffered a concussion during the
    game. Jefferson, who
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 09:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Watch: Thunder PG Russell
    Westbrook has confrontation
    with fan

    Oklahoma City Thunder point guard
    Russell Westbrook got into a
    verbal confrontation with a fan
    while leaving Thursday night's loss
    to the Los...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 09:45:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Mavericks channel Run-D.M.C.
    in tremendous new promo

    The Dallas Mavericks are very good
    at basketball, but they are amazing
    at making promotional videos, and
    the team's newest work continues
    its years of video
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 09:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Friday's A.M. Hot Clicks:
    Scenes From LeBron James'
    Return to Cleveland

    LeBron LeBack in Cleveland...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 08:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Thunder's Russell
    Westbrook out 4-6 weeks with
    broken hand

    Oklahoma City Thunder point guard
    Russell Westbrook is expected to
    miss four to six weeks after
    breaking a bone in his right
    hand. Westbrook, 25, fracture
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 08:18:36 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    No. 4 Auburn-No. 7 Ole Miss:
    Playoff knockout game

    OXFORD, Miss. (AP) Auburn and
    Mississippi spent the week
    dismissing their standing in the
    first College Football Playoff
    rankings as mostly...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 08:56:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Cam Newton on Panthers' loss:
    'I'm not blaming anybody but
    myself'

    Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam
    Newton took responsibility for the
    team's 28-10 loss to the New
    Orleans Saints on Thursday. Newton
    completed just 10 of 2
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 00:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Russell Westbrook
    could miss 4-6 weeks with
    fractured right hand

    Russell Westbrook could reportedly
    miss four to six weeks after
    sustaining a fractured right hand
    during the Thunder's 93-90 loss to
    the Clippers...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 07:55:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Wild's Thomas Vanek
    tied to money laundering,
    gambling scandal

    Minnesota Wild forward Thomas Vanek?s name
    was once again brought up in an
    alleged gambling ring, this time
    after a bookmaker pleaded guilty in
    federal
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 06:29:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Redskins CB DeAngelo
    Hall re-tears Achilles tendon

    Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall
    will have another surgery on his
    Achilles after re-tearing the
    tendon this week.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 06:43:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Ashlyn Coray: Lovely Lady of
    the Day


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 06:58:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Spurs, Kawhi Leonard
    unlikely to reach deal by
    deadline

    The Spurs are unlikely to reach a
    deal with forward Kawhi Leonard
    on a contract extension.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 04:59:02 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Hurley takes a 2-shot lead at
    CIMB Classic

    KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) Billy
    Hurley III fired a 67 Friday to
    take a two-shot lead after two
    rounds of the CIMB Classic at the
    Kuala Lumpur...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 04:40:08 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Group argues Redskins lawsuit
    should be tossed

    WASHINGTON (AP) Five Native
    Americans are asking a Virginia
    judge to dismiss a lawsuit the
    Washington Redskins filed after the
    group successfully...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 31 Oct 2014 04:30:37 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Looking for playoff contenders
    outside the obvious

    The first games after the release
    of the College Football Playoff
    rankings have a chance to reveal
    some new contenders.Games to watch
    if you're...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

Click to read more news.
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Posted At: 03/21/2011 @ 8:04AM

How the Betting Line is Made

Tony George - Courtesy of my Friend Johnny Detroit at Pregame

I THOUGHT IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO UNDERSTAND THE PROCEDURE FOR THIS.  WITH SO MUCH PUBLIC INTEREST IN MARCH MADNESS, THIS IS THE BEST BREAKDOWN I HAVE SEEN THAT EXPLAINS THIS IN LAMENS TERMS SO WE ALL CAN SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

MOST HANDICAPPERS REALLY HANDICAP THE LINE AS MUCH AS THE GAME IF NOT MORE, AND THAT IS WHAT SEPERATES US FROM JOE PUBLIC AND WHERE EXPERIENCE COMES IN.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why the Line Changes

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

o    Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

o    Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."



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