Handicappers
  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 24 Jun 2014 11:44:30 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Uruguay eliminates Italy; Did
    Suarez bite again?

    Uruguay is moving on. Italy is out
    of the World Cup after a 1-0 loss.
    Meanwhile, Luis Suarez apparently
    bit an opponent again.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 24 Jun 2014 12:22:15 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    World Cup analysis: Costa
    Rica-England


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 24 Jun 2014 12:24:21 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    NBA Mock Draft: Another change
    at the top

    Just when you thought the NBA draft
    pecking order was starting to get
    predictable, Joel Embiid shakes it
    up.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 24 Jun 2014 11:44:30 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Live: Uruguay facing Italy for
    spot in Round of 16

    Costa Rica has advanced. Who else
    will emerge from Group D? For
    Uruguay and Italy, the loser will
    be out of the World Cup.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 24 Jun 2014 12:04:55 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Heat forward LeBron
    James to opt out of deal,
    become free agent

    Get ready for the Decision, Part
    II. LeBron James is opting out of
    his contract with the Heat, and
    will become a free agent.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 24 Jun 2014 11:39:06 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    LeBron Opting Out

    Get ready for the Decision, Part
    II. LeBron James is opting out of
    his contract with the Heat, and
    will become a free agent.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 23 Jun 2014 20:36:05 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Mexico tops Croatia, advances
    out of group


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 24 Jun 2014 01:57:44 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    O's Davis walks off White Sox
    with pinch-hit HR


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 23 Jun 2014 20:15:34 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Royals hold off Dodgers


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 23 Jun 2014 21:04:16 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Bulls offer Gibson,
    Snell, picks for Love


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 23 Jun 2014 13:32:52 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    MLB Power Rankings: Athletics
    stay on top, Reds start to
    climb

    Oakland swept the first-place votes
    and is No. 1 again in the Power
    Rankings, but two NL Central teams
    are rising.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 23 Jun 2014 20:51:51 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    U.S. has no intention of
    playing for draw against
    Germany

    The U.S. only needs to draw Germany
    to advance, but will still try for
    a win against the European giant.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 23 Jun 2014 20:36:05 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Mexico beats Croatia to
    advance out of group


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 23 Jun 2014 20:17:22 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Mexico beats Cameroon,
    advances to knockout round

    After a tough 2013, Mexico
    completed its magical turnaround by
    taking down Croatia 3-1 and
    advancing out of Group A.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 23 Jun 2014 20:15:34 EDT

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Dodgers - Royals


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

Click to read more news.
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Posted At: 03/21/2011 @ 8:04AM

How the Betting Line is Made

Tony George - Courtesy of my Friend Johnny Detroit at Pregame

I THOUGHT IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO UNDERSTAND THE PROCEDURE FOR THIS.  WITH SO MUCH PUBLIC INTEREST IN MARCH MADNESS, THIS IS THE BEST BREAKDOWN I HAVE SEEN THAT EXPLAINS THIS IN LAMENS TERMS SO WE ALL CAN SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

MOST HANDICAPPERS REALLY HANDICAP THE LINE AS MUCH AS THE GAME IF NOT MORE, AND THAT IS WHAT SEPERATES US FROM JOE PUBLIC AND WHERE EXPERIENCE COMES IN.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why the Line Changes

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

o    Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

o    Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."



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