Handicappers
  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 16:35:36 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    NFL has laundry list of
    verboten celebrations

    Dancing Billy ''White Shoes''
    Johnson, shuffling Ickey Woods and
    the group high-fiving Fun Bunch?
    Their entertaining touchdown
    celebrations would...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 16:49:26 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Red Sox RHP Buchholz has minor
    knee surgery

    BOSTON (AP) Boston Red Sox
    right-hander Clay Buchholz has
    undergone minor knee surgery after
    an inconsistent season.The
    operation to repair a torn...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 16:47:32 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    No. 11 Mississippi prepares
    for Alabama offense

    OXFORD, Miss. (AP) - Lane Kiffin
    has opened up the once-vanilla
    Alabama offense and the first-year
    offensive coordinator has the
    Crimson Tide...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 16:51:33 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Terps quarterback situation
    unclear vs. Ohio State

    COLLEGE PARK, Md. (AP) No Maryland
    quarterback has started every game
    in a season since 2006, a streak
    that will continue if injured C.J.
    Brown...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 16:58:57 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Knicks stress defense,
    teamwork at West Point camp

    WEST POINT, N.Y. (AP) A few days
    at the U.S. Military Academy can
    change the Knicks only so much.
    Notorious night owl J.R. Smith
    isn't going to...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 17:14:59 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Bears waive WR Ross, elevate
    WR Williams

    LAKE FOREST, Ill. (AP) The Chicago
    Bears have waived receiver Rashad
    Ross and elevated receiver Chris
    Williams from the practice squad to
    the...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 17:04:18 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Predators sign forward Taylor
    Beck to 1-year deal

    NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The
    Nashville Predators have signed
    restricted free agent forward
    Taylor Beck to a one-year, $550,000
    deal.The Predators...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 15:52:18 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Michigan apologizes for
    mistakes with QB injury

    ANN ARBOR, Mich. (AP) Michigan
    announced changes to its injury
    protocol Tuesday, admitting it made
    a mistake in handling quarterback
    Shane Morris...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 15:48:05 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Auburn's Quan Bray continues
    to honor late mother

    AUBURN, Ala. (AP) Quan Bray might
    only touch the ball two or three
    times a game, but he has become a
    playmaker for No. 5 Auburn.The
    Tigers' senior...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 15:57:34 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Hokies look to make big plays,
    and prevent them

    The numbers seem
    incongruous.Virginia Tech's defense
    ranks 27th nationally, allowing
    325.6 yards per game, but is among
    the worst when it comes to...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 15:58:38 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Strasburg's playoff debut, 2
    years after shutdown

    WASHINGTON (AP) About a half-hour
    before game time on the days
    Stephen Strasburg starts at home
    for the Washington Nationals, he
    emerges from the...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 16:03:53 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Redskins still smarting as
    they return from break

    ASHBURN, Va. (AP) A four-day
    weekend is long time to stew over a
    31-point, prime-time loss.The
    Washington Redskins returned to
    work Tuesday, a bit...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 16:13:22 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Patrick Chan to skip figure
    skating season

    OTTAWA, Ontario (AP) Three-time
    world champion Patrick Chan is
    taking a break from competitive
    figure skating but plans to return
    to the circuit...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 16:13:22 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    FIFA official says World Cup
    will be on turf

    TORONTO (AP) A FIFA official
    visiting Canada in advance of the
    Women's World Cup next summer says
    there are no plans to reconsider
    playing the...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 15:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    How far can banged up A's go
    in postseason?

    On Tuesday's SI Now, Sports
    Illustrated MLB writers Jay Jaffe
    and Albert Chen discuss if the
    Oakland A's have picked up the
    momentum after going...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

Click to read more news.
Handicapper Tools
assist
assist


          Handicapper Blogs
Posted At: 03/21/2011 @ 8:04AM

How the Betting Line is Made

Tony George - Courtesy of my Friend Johnny Detroit at Pregame

I THOUGHT IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO UNDERSTAND THE PROCEDURE FOR THIS.  WITH SO MUCH PUBLIC INTEREST IN MARCH MADNESS, THIS IS THE BEST BREAKDOWN I HAVE SEEN THAT EXPLAINS THIS IN LAMENS TERMS SO WE ALL CAN SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

MOST HANDICAPPERS REALLY HANDICAP THE LINE AS MUCH AS THE GAME IF NOT MORE, AND THAT IS WHAT SEPERATES US FROM JOE PUBLIC AND WHERE EXPERIENCE COMES IN.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why the Line Changes

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

o    Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

o    Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."



Click Here To Show 10 Entries >>
Click Here To Show All Entries >>