Handicappers
  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 18:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Derek Carr will start
    for Raiders over Matt Schaub

    Raiders players have been informed
    that Derek Carr will be Oakland's
    starting quarterback in Week 1,
    according to Jay Glazer of FOX
    Sports.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 17:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    After another head injury,
    David Ash must be tough enough
    to walk away

    After suffering another concussion
    against North Texas, Texas QB David
    Ash needs to consider his long-term
    health and walk away from football.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 15:45:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Derek Jeter's farewell, MVP
    races highlight September's
    storylines

    Derek Jeter's retirement, the
    Royals' chase for their first
    playoff berth since 1985 and tight
    MVP races in the AL and NL
    highlight a big month of September
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 16:29:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Another setback for Astros as
    team fires manager Bo Porter

    The Astros' summer of discontent
    continued Monday, as the team
    surprisingly fired manager Bo
    Porter after less than two years on
    the job.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 16:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Alouettes have reached
    out to Michael Sam, own his
    CFL rights

    The Montreal Alouettes own Michael
    Sam's Canadian Football League
    rights and have tried to contact
    him, according to NFL.com's Ian
    Rapoport....
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 14:45:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Cover-Two: Predicting order of
    finish in each and every
    division

    Who will emerge from the talented
    and tough NFC West? Chris Burke and
    Doug Farrar make their NFL
    division-by-division predictions.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 14:08:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    'Power Five' good for players,
    bad for small schools

    On Monday's SI Now, Sports
    Illustrated college football
    writers Zac Ellis and Martin
    Rickman discuss the implications of
    the "Power Five"...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 16:37:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    SI Swimsuit 2015 Casting Call:
    Catherine Dea

    NAME: Catherine Dea...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 14:00:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Golf.com: 18 'wow' holes
    around the world


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 13:52:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Ranking the best playoff races
    in MLB's final month of play

    With the MLB season down to its
    final month, we rank all eight
    division and wild-card races from
    best to worst.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 12:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Best team to miss playoffs,
    more burning questions for NFL
    season

    Questions abound with the 2014 NFL
    season right around the corner. Can
    the St. Louis Rams' ferocious
    defense offset a punchless offense?
    Are the...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 14:13:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    What is the state of soccer's
    popularity in the United
    States?

    On Monday's SI Now, Sports
    Illustrated senior writer Grant
    Wahl talks about the growth of
    soccer in America after USMNT's
    success in the 2014 World...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 14:02:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    How College Football Playoff
    changes regular season
    scheduling

    On Monday's SI Now, Sports
    Illustrated college football
    writers Zac Ellis and Martin
    Rickman discuss the new College
    Football Playoff system and if...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 13:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Ray McDonald released from
    jail, says 'I'm a good-hearted
    person'

    San Francisco 49ers defensive
    lineman Ray McDonald was released
    from jail Sunday morning after
    being arrested on domestic violence
    charges. Local...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Mon, 01 Sep 2014 14:00:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    QB David Ash's injury deals
    big blow to Charlie Strong's
    first year at Texas

    The loss of QB David Ash to
    concussion symptoms leaves Texas
    without crucially needed experience
    in Charlie Strong's first year at
    the helm.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

Click to read more news.
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Posted At: 03/21/2011 @ 8:04AM

How the Betting Line is Made

Tony George - Courtesy of my Friend Johnny Detroit at Pregame

I THOUGHT IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO UNDERSTAND THE PROCEDURE FOR THIS.  WITH SO MUCH PUBLIC INTEREST IN MARCH MADNESS, THIS IS THE BEST BREAKDOWN I HAVE SEEN THAT EXPLAINS THIS IN LAMENS TERMS SO WE ALL CAN SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

MOST HANDICAPPERS REALLY HANDICAP THE LINE AS MUCH AS THE GAME IF NOT MORE, AND THAT IS WHAT SEPERATES US FROM JOE PUBLIC AND WHERE EXPERIENCE COMES IN.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why the Line Changes

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

o    Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

o    Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."



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