Handicappers
  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 24 Oct 2014 00:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Three Thoughts: Emmanuel
    Sanders shines in Denver's win
    over San Diego

    The Denver Broncos are rolling.
    Peyton Manning and Co. captured
    their fourth straight win Thursday
    night, dropping AFC West rival San
    Diego, 35-21...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 17:00:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    The All-22: Vontae Davis is
    the point man of the Colts'
    resurgent defense

    The Colts currently rank ninth in
    Football Outsiders' defensive
    metrics, and only the Lions are
    better against the pass. This has
    to do with several under
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 19:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Broncos hold off late
    Chargers' run in 35-21 home
    win


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 18:02:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Crash Course to UFC 179: José
    Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

    Everything you need to know about
    this weekend's big fight....
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 16:40:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Tom Izzo's Midnight Madness
    Costumes

    Tom Izzo has long embraced Midnight
    Madness, the annual kickoff that
    introduces college basketball teams
    to their fans, no longer held at
    midnight....
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 20:49:22 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Clemson, Texas A&M to play 2
    games

    CLEMSON, S.C. (AP) Clemson and
    Texas A&M have agreed to a
    two-game series in 2018 and
    2019.The schools announced the
    games Thursday night.The...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 10:43:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    College basketball conference
    previews: Big Ten

    The Wisconsin Badgers, fresh off Bo
    Ryan's first-ever Final Four
    appearance, lead the way in our Big
    Ten preview.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 12:27:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Here to stay: Utah's Nate
    Orchard finds stability,
    success in new family

    In need of a home, Nate Orchard
    found so much more -- a family,
    structure, support -- in Katherine
    and Dave Orchard. Now he has his
    own family and is hittin
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 20:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Lakers guard Steve Nash to
    miss entire season due to
    injury

    Los Angeles Lakers point guard
    Steve Nash will miss the entire
    2014-15 season. Nash has been
    dealing with recurring nerve damage
    in his back. 
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 12:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    The Old College Try - Sabonis
    longform


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 19:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    LIVE: Chargers visit Peyton,
    Broncos


    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 19:56:44 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    PGA president refers to
    Poulter as 'lil girl'

    ST. SIMONS ISLAND, Ga. (AP) The
    PGA of America president referred
    to Ian Poulter as a ''lil girl' for
    his criticism of the way Nick Faldo
    and Tom...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 20:08:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Lakers guard Steve
    Nash to be ruled out for
    entire season

    Los Angeles Lakers point guard
    Steve Nash is expected to be ruled
    out for the entire 2014-15 season.
    Nash has been dealing with nerve
    damage in his back. 
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 18:53:40 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Phillies, Sizemore agree to
    1-year, $2M contract

    PHILADELPHIA (AP) The Phillies and
    Grady Sizemore have agreed to a one
    year, $2 million contract.The team
    announced the contract, which
    includes...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Thu, 23 Oct 2014 19:04:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    'Super Mariota' video features
    Oregon QB Marcus Mariota in
    8-bit form

    Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota
    is one of the most exciting players
    in college football. Watching him
    play is fun, almost as fun as
    playing old...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

Click to read more news.
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Posted At: 03/21/2011 @ 8:04AM

How the Betting Line is Made

Tony George - Courtesy of my Friend Johnny Detroit at Pregame

I THOUGHT IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO UNDERSTAND THE PROCEDURE FOR THIS.  WITH SO MUCH PUBLIC INTEREST IN MARCH MADNESS, THIS IS THE BEST BREAKDOWN I HAVE SEEN THAT EXPLAINS THIS IN LAMENS TERMS SO WE ALL CAN SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

MOST HANDICAPPERS REALLY HANDICAP THE LINE AS MUCH AS THE GAME IF NOT MORE, AND THAT IS WHAT SEPERATES US FROM JOE PUBLIC AND WHERE EXPERIENCE COMES IN.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why the Line Changes

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

o    Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

o    Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."



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