Handicappers
  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 21:47:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Syracuse QB Terrel Hunt
    ejected for punching Villanova
    player

    Syracuse quarterback Terrel Hunt
    was ejected from Friday's home
    game against Villanova after
    punching an opposing player in the
    facemask after he was ta
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 15:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Bold predictions: Nelson the
    top fantasy WR, Stacy not a
    top-20 RB

    A week from today, one real,
    meaningful NFL game for the 2014
    season will be in the books, and we
    will be just 48 hours away from our
    first Sunday...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 19:32:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: Clippers pursuing Ray
    Allen

    The Clippers are interested in
    adding veteran guard Ray Allen,
    according to Arash Markazi of
    ESPN. ...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 20:33:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Venus Williams among big
    names, top seeds to fall on
    Day 5 of the U.S. Open

    NEW YORK -- It was an eventful day
    at Flushing Meadows on Friday, with
    more retirements, a women's
    tournament veteran losing in three
    sets and a No...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 17:00:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Colts owner Jim Irsay reaches
    plea bargain in OWI case

    A Hamilton County prosecutor has
    announced that ?Indianapolis Colts
    owner Jim Irsay reached a plea
    deal in his OWI case.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 16:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    49ers outside linebacker Aldon
    Smith suspended nine games

    San Francisco 49ers outside
    linebacker Aldon Smith has been
    suspended nine games for violating
    the NFL's personal conduct policy,
    the league...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 17:15:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Aldon Smith suspension creates
    big hole in San Francisco
    49ers defense

    Aldon Smith's suspension and
    NaVorro Bowman's injury could put
    the San Francisco 49ers on track
    for a regression.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 15:42:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    NFL doesn't deserve pat on
    back for letting Ray Rice
    slide

    On Friday's SI Now, Sports
    Illustrated senior writer Phil
    Taylor and staff writer Brian
    Hamilton discuss the NFL's new
    domestic abuse policy.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 16:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Police investigating Josh Shaw
    in possible domestic violence
    incident

    USC senior cornerback Josh Shaw is
    being investigated by Los Angeles
    police in relation to a possible
    domestic violence incident last
    weekend.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 15:08:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    USC's crazy week shows a lack
    of control by Steve Sarkisian

    On Friday's SI Now, SI Senior
    Writer Phil Taylor and Staff Writer
    Brian Hamilton discuss USC's
    strange week including Josh Shaw
    lying about how he...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 14:00:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    True Blue: UCLA's Brett
    Hundley preps for heralded
    year after passing on NFL

    He could have been a first-round
    pick in the NFL draft. Instead
    Brett Hundley returned to UCLA on a
    mission.
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 12:52:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Friday's P.M. Hot Clicks:
    Celebrities at the U.S. Open

    Celebrities at the U.S. Open...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 15:31:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Eli Manning talks about stinky
    centers and Kevin Federline in
    his Reddit AMA

    New York Giants quarterback Eli
    Manning took part in a Reddit AMA
    on Friday and he was game for
    pretty much anything, including
    questions about his smellies
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 14:00:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Report: NFL, NFLPA discussing
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    The NFL and NFLPA are formally
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    to Mike Garafolo of FOX...
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

  • Breaking SPORTSNEWS News
    @ Fri, 29 Aug 2014 14:30:00 -0400

    By: Sports Illustrated

    Tony Stewart on crash:
    'Something that will affect my
    life forever'

    Tony Stewart spoke to the media for
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    sprint car hit and killed Kevin
    Ward Jr. on Aug. 9. "This is a
    sadness and a pain that
    …. read the rest by clicking HERE

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Posted At: 03/21/2011 @ 8:04AM

How the Betting Line is Made

Tony George - Courtesy of my Friend Johnny Detroit at Pregame

I THOUGHT IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO UNDERSTAND THE PROCEDURE FOR THIS.  WITH SO MUCH PUBLIC INTEREST IN MARCH MADNESS, THIS IS THE BEST BREAKDOWN I HAVE SEEN THAT EXPLAINS THIS IN LAMENS TERMS SO WE ALL CAN SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

MOST HANDICAPPERS REALLY HANDICAP THE LINE AS MUCH AS THE GAME IF NOT MORE, AND THAT IS WHAT SEPERATES US FROM JOE PUBLIC AND WHERE EXPERIENCE COMES IN.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why the Line Changes

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

o    Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

o    Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."



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