By Tony George 
 

Well, it is official, and do NOT lie gents, your bracket is all shot to hell and back after last week’s results.  What a March Madness and Sweet 16 to now.  Kansas craps down their leg, Duke looks like a JUCO team, Arizona comes up short with seconds left as U Conn’s unreal run continues, and VCU has flat out shocked the world.  Kentucky has won 2 brutal games in which they more or less dominated North Carolina and held off overall number seed Ohio State to get here, giving them the most impressive resume. Well, maybe!!

 

Let’s talk VCU and this improbable journey.  They have dominated every team they have played, starting with the play-in game with USC.How Sweet it is - The Final 16

Tony George - Courtesy of my Friend Johnny Detroit at Pregame

I THOUGHT IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO UNDERSTAND THE PROCEDURE FOR THIS.  WITH SO MUCH PUBLIC INTEREST IN MARCH MADNESS, THIS IS THE BEST BREAKDOWN I HAVE SEEN THAT EXPLAINS THIS IN LAMENS TERMS SO WE ALL CAN SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

MOST HANDICAPPERS REALLY HANDICAP THE LINE AS MUCH AS THE GAME IF NOT MORE, AND THAT IS WHAT SEPERATES US FROM JOE PUBLIC AND WHERE EXPERIENCE COMES IN.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they

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By Tony George

Kansas and Texas both lost week but remain at the top, and Texas AM and Nebraska are very dangerous right now, especially at home.  Texas and KU BOTH looking to get back on track this week.

Kansas on Big Monday on ESPN just destroyed Okie State, who as stated in the past is not the same team away from Stillwater, and Texas looks to dismantle Iowa State who is very short handed on Tuesday.

The Key game this week is Kansas State at Nebraska on Wednesday Night the 23rd.  HUGE game for both teams.  NU is 16-1 at home and avenging a blowout loss at K State last month and as mentioned off a signature win against #3 Texas on Saturday, Doc Sadlers biggest win at Nebraska.

Mizzou finally picked up a road win, albeit at Iowa State but Missouri is gaining some steam headed into March Madness.  The Big 12 Tourney is around the corner and will be a good one.

THIS WEEKS RATINGS

Texas 93

Kansas 91

Texas AM 88 - tie

Missouri 88 - tie

Nebraska 86

Kansas State 84

Baylor 82

Oklahoma State 80 (tie)

Colorado 80 - tie

Oklahoma 78

Texas Tech 76

Iowa State 75

Allow 2 points for homecourt in all cases but the following:

Texas and Kansas 4 points at home, Nebraska 3.5 points, Missouri, Texas AM and Okie State 3 points

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By Tony George

 

Back in the saddle again after a 5 day break from all capping, BUT plenty of time to catch all Big 12 games of interest and make some small adjustments to my ratings of 2 weeks ago.

 

Texas and Kansas continue to separate themselves from the rest of the pack and Texas simply put is on a roll, and the best ATS cover team in the Conference at 15-5 ATS overall, and they are 10-0 SU in conference action.  While the Longhorns struggled with Baylor on Saturday they managed a win and a rare cover miss, while Kansas was pounding Iowa State at Phog Allen to move to 9-1 in Big 12 play. 

 

Also rans are Texas AM out of a slump and they are 6-4 in conference action. Besides Texas and Kansas, Texas AM is the third best road team in the conference at 4-2 SU.  Baylor is at 6-5 in conference action and their guards are starting to step up, and Mizzou continues to pound people at home, and act like they have never played before on the road, the Tigers are deplorable on the road.  Nebraska's defense continu

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By Tony George

  

 

Every year after the Super Bowl I get angry.  I am not referring to the fact that football is over, but that does not help my demeanor either.  The opening first two months of the first quarter of the new year always brings bad news from the economic front in politics.  Watch the news every night if you need to be reminded of this fact.  I am going to make some assumptions in this blog about tax revenues.  I also am going to quote some public opinion out of an article in 2009 in the state of New Jersey, one of the hardest hit states in the Union outside of Illinois in terms of being not solvent as a government entity.
&n

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By Tony George

I am off the races again in Big 12 Hoops action, and also the Mo Valley as my two specialty conferences, but I am finding huge success cherry picking the Books in the Big 12.  Some teams are overrated and some teams underrated and we are getting close to mid season conference scenario. 

I am finding great value with oddsmakers lines right now, and it should be noted that road games in the Big 12, like any other conference are very tough to get wins at, but conversley, many road dogs are covering some numbers, so I thought I might give you some pointers and some takes on Big 12 Hoops action.

This weekend I unloaded on Texas who was a 7 point pup and they beat Kansas SU by 11.  KU is overrated on the national scale in my opinion and hvae had issues putting good teams away, as well as covering big numbers at home against conference foes.  Last week they barely escaped a scrappy Nebraska team as a 16 point favorite winning by 3 points in a last minute thriller.  They have had srtruggles on the road with close ones against Iowa State and also an OT thriller at Ann Arbor against an average Michigan team.  This is NOT the Kansas team of old, and their frontcourt is not as strong as past years editions.  Any team who defends the perimeter well and has a decent frontcourt is going to give Kansas problems.  I can name 10 teams who can beat them on a nuetral floor, a number 2 ranking nationally is too high for KU.

Kansas State continues to be an enigma wrapped in a riddle, but the bottom line is that ANY team who can play a good defense, will beat K State.  Thery are overrated and have no legit frontcourt and while their backcourt is better than average, too much emphasis on Pullen to score the majority of their points is killing the Wildcats, not to mention a 58% free throw percentage, that kills you in big games. They a

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I received an email on my own site about my record at Winning Edge versus a monitored record I have elsewhere that is better than what reflects here.  I want to address this.

I want to address that for you all, it is not what it seems.  I have been in the business 19 years and am known as an ethical capper and have an impeccable reputation in this business, that is why Wayne Root brought me here, and Wayne is a friend of mine and has been for a long time.  Wayne is a great capper who has my respect so I want to respect his Winning Edge clients as well with total transparency.

Instead of doing weekend packages where we can break out every game on an indivual basis for tracking and then you have to purcahse all weekend plays at a rate in excess of $50 to $60 for the weekend pass, I break my plays out and load the earliest game, ALTHOUGH there are 3 or 4 other games lumped in there with writeups, THE ONLY PLAY THAT IS GRADED IS THE EARLIEST.

SO....If I have the Steelers early and they lose, it shows as 1 loss for the day, but if that card has 2 late games that both win then I go 2-1 but the record reflects a single loss.  So if I say on Monday, "off a winning day", you can be assured it was a winning day, I tell it like it is everyday in my front page promo.

EXAMPLE- Last night I had a bonus card on Thursday the 9th.  I loaded Georgetown who lost, but had Portalnd as the other play in that card on TNT that won.  The record reflects 0-1 when I was 1-1.  Still lost a half unit, but no NBA winner registered. 

Now all handicappers are always under scrutinty, I get that, but my record is better elsewhere and there was a comment on my email from a customer here, but I wanted to address it with all of you. 

I have to post the first game off the board as my lone play although I may have 2 or 3 others on a card.  I po

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By Tony George

Just got off the phone from my source in Lincoln.

Nebraska QB Martinez very limited in practice on Monday, (took about 7 reps only) and now a gametime decision for Huskers. 

With him they have a legit chance, without him they do not...even considering the defense NU has.

High right ankle sprain is NOT healed and recent developments in left foot is a bad case of turf toe.  Zac Lee doubtful in backup role so it may be Cody Green again. 

Also starting WR Niles Paul out for the game...best WR and a good special teamer...Ouch!

 

IMO - If he does start and play, his capabilities with be limited and ANY ability to make cuts when running it, will be very very limited. This hampers Nebraska's attack on offense with him in there, because he is a slasher type runner like Eric Crouch was, but much faster when he hits the jets...a dangerous dangerous guy, now he is not so dangerous.......if he was healthty I would say wrong team favored at this point. 

His ability to break contain on the corners is crucial against Oklahoma, and I would say the coaching staff is playing possum on the deal...but that is not the case....he travels in 3 days to get ready in Dallas, healing time is short...might be 60% max when Saturday hits....and one wrong move or someone falls on him, it could be all over and then NU scrambles for answers, not a good thing when playing OU in front of a tough crowd. 

I will not post a play in my specialty conference championship till Friday after I have got more information on this scenario.  FYI

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by Tony George

 

 

The season is just past the halfway point and my Power rating systems are honed in, as evidenced by a 4-1 ATS week in the NFL last week.  While power ratings are a guide against the Las Vegas line in terms of an overlay against the number, a myriad of other factors also go into the equation.  Weekly injuries, divisional trends, weather and set up lines by Las Vegas oddsmakers, that can be identified with experience play a part in my selections.  Headed into Week 10 of the season, this is where they stand.

 

Home field is worth 3 to 4 points depending on the matchup.  The Patriots when in sync to me, seem the team to beat if they continue to play defense, it is a shame that the Jets are in the same division.  The Colts have fallen simply due to injuries and Kansas City off back to back divisional losses have dropped 4 spots, the biggest loser in points.  

 

The Giants and Falcons lead the NFC race with Philly making a 4 spot jump after a more than impressive win on Monday and QB Vick is getting better weekly.  If they can play defense, again which is key down the stretch, they will be deep in the mix along w

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By Tony George

 

What a week in the Big 12 last week as numerous giants fell, and so did my bankroll because of it.  College football this year is more of a flip flop from week to week than I have seen in quite some time, not just the Big 12 but in general.  Look like a rock star one week, and act like you never picked up a guitar the next week.  Vegas books have to be loving NCAA bettors right now.  The frontrunner right now in the Big 12 is clearly Nebraska in the North Division after the Mizzou debacle in west Texas last week, and after OU lost last week, Okie State is the front runner in the South with Texas also going down.  Remember NU and OSU already played in Stillwater and the Huskers racked up 51 points on them.  Interesting stuff down the stretch in the South, the North is all but done unless Nebraska self destructs.

 

Mizzou went to Lubbock Texas and let the second worst running team in the Big 12 destroy them on the ground, like the previous week in Lincoln Nebraska as the Huskers rammed it down their throat.  Oklahoma was held scoreless at Texas AM in the first half  who has a weak defense, and lose in a bad way.  Texas goes to K State and gets humiliated, and Nebraska goes to Iowa State with payback in mind as a 19 point fav, and wins by 1 in OT on

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