Submitted by Jim Hurley’s Network on Monday, September 14, 2015 at 3:39 PM
A REVIEW OF NETWORK'S GOLDEN GAME WINNER THIS PAST WEEKEND ON OHIO (+3.5) OVER MARSHALL
It's one of the most feared service releases in all of Las Vegas. JIM HURLEY unleashed his 2015 GOLDEN GAME this past Saturday on the betting markets...and it cashed easily as Ohio (+3.5) beat Marshall 21-10 outright as a home underdog.
Because many of you are relatively new to the site...and don't know the long and storied history of NETWORK'S exclusive TEAM HANDICAPPING approach...we wanted to use a breakdown of this blowout cover to show you how all the information comes together to find virtual locks on the football betting board.
First the basics...
*Ohio won 21-10, and clearly should have been the favorite
*Ohio won total yardage 363-241
*Ohio won rushing yardage 229-157
*Ohio held Marshall to just 2 of 14 on third down conversions
Why was JIM HURLEY so confident of the home "upset" in this spot? Let's review the analytical components...
SCOUTS AND SOURCES
The key here was that our sources were confident new Marshall quarterback Michael Birdsong was going to struggle badly in his first road start. He was shaky in his season debut at home vs. Purdue. You'll recall the Thundering Herd won that game because of two defensive TDs. The transfer from James Madison is a big downgrade from Rakeem Kato. All scouting reports said we should fade Birdsong.
Marshall had been outgained by Purdue in its season opener at home, and was very lucky to get that victory. Ohio outgained Idaho by about 100 yards in its season opener...on the road. Granting that there's not much to go off so early in the season. The stats that did exist suggested that Ohio was the value side, and had clear upset potential against an opponent still adjusting to a quarterback downgrade.
TRENDS AND ANGLES GUYS
This was clearly a much better schedule spot for Ohio. Teams are always fired up for their home opener...particularly when they're coming off a road win and they're facing a "name" opponent. Marshall had no reason to be up here. They had won a national TV victory in their season opener, and were in a clear flat spot. It sure didn't hurt that Marshall had one less day of preparation since they won on a Sunday over Labor Day weekend. Great situation for a home dog!
Granting that simulations are going to be sketchy when one team has a new quarterback...there just wasn't any way the software could see Marshall as the favorite. You couldn't get there from here! Ohio had much more going for it. Marshall lost a ton of people on defense in addition to quarterback Kato. The Green Hornet wasn't going to save the day. The simulations centered on Ohio by about 5 points as a general result. That's more than a TD away from the Vegas line. The "skew" for outlier results were much more likely to go Ohio's way as a "solid" home team against an unknown quantity at QB for the visitor.
WISE GUY SOURCES
It was clear to us early in the week that the sharps were looking at Ohio and were going to try to time the market when limits were at their highest. We don't always agree 100% with the Wise Guys. But, when we do...and the information is strong...it helps set the stage for our biggest releases. It seems that everyone knew Birdsong would be in trouble!
All things considered...solid as a rock. Or, better put...SOLID GOLD!
The GOLDEN GAME got the money again. Be sure you're on the lookout for potential sequels in the coming weeks...and even possibly a GOLDEN GAME in the NFL. We never know well in advance when these situations will arise because you have to see the opening pointspreads first. History suggests other virtual locks are on the way!
You can always purchase BIG, JUICY WINNERS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office at 1-800-323-4453 during normal business hours. Ask today about full season packages for college and pro football. Don't forget about the baseball playoffs, which will be here before you know it.
Back to big game TV previews after today's bonus big play review. Here's what's coming up this week in the NOTEBOOK...
Midweek: NFL TV Preview...Denver at Kansas City
Friday-Saturday: College Football TV Preview...Ole Miss at Alabama
Sunday: NFL TV Preview...Seattle at Green Bay
Monday: NFL TV Preview...NY Jets at Indianapolis
Very tough road challenges for Denver and Seattle...the Super Bowl teams from two years ago and continuing threats to lift the Lombardi Trophy. And, that SEC thriller with Ole Miss and 'Bama is going to be a slobberknocker.
Congrats to all of you who won with us. For almost 30 years, smart sports bettors have been GETTING THE MONEY with JIM HURLEY'S NETWORK!