Submitted by Wayne Allyn Root on Thursday, October 29, 2015 at 1:18 PM
Wayne Root: A Hidden Key to Finding Football Upsets
Today I'm going to give you a very important handicapping tip that the betting markets have largely missed over the years. When you're on the lookout for great underdog bets and outright upset calls...you want to fade favorites who are likely to have turnover issues.
You may have heard from so-called pundits that turnovers are "random," or "unpredictable." I can't tell you how much money that's made me! Sure, you can't tell on which specific play a turnover may happen...but you can certainly find teams who are much more turnover prone than others. When those teams are laying points, you should be looking to bet against them aggressively...particularly when other factors help magnify the factor in special circumstances.
What types of teams are turnover prone?
*Those who pass a lot
*Those who pass DEEP a lot rather than throwing short dump-offs
*Those with a running quarterback who doesn't protect the ball
*Those who play for a head coach who loves going for big plays
*Those breaking in new starting quarterbacks
*Those starting veteran quarterbacks with proven turnover issues (like Jay Cutler, for example)
When everything is clicking, these teams can really run up the score. That tricks oddsmakers and casual bettors into thinking the excitement will continue. But, high reward comes with high risk...which means that disaster is always just around the corner for this type of team.
*When playing in flat or letdown spot
*When facing a very aggressive turnover-forcing defense
*When playing in a high pressure situation with a lot at stake
*When playing in brisk winds
*When playing in precipitation
Some of this should strike you as obvious. And, it IS obvious when you're handicapping this way and winning. The money just keeps rolling in! It's amazing how often lines are inflated against high risk teams just when their risks are most likely to blow up in their face.
Looking at those two lists...and thinking about what you know of college and pro football...doesn't it strike you as DUMB that anyone would think turnovers are random? Some teams emphasize conservative play that avoids turnovers. Others invite turnovers by trying to make the highlight reel on every snap. It's obvious which style will implode more than others. And those implosions offer very clear and meaningful edges against the betting line.
I mentioned that this factor really magnifies when elements "combine" to create high turnover scenarios.
Imagine a big name team that plays high risk football...and they're in a letdown spot after an important win...and they're facing an aggressive defense that forces mistakes...and that opponent is sky high to give its biggest performance of the year...and the wind is blowing steady at around 15 mph.
Pipe dream? NO! It happens a few times every year. And, at least a few of those elements combine every week. If you logged years' worth of my PINNACLE releases, you'll see how often I was backing smart underdogs against the kind of favorites I just described to you (particularly in the colleges). Fired up dogs vs. flat favorites...which can win clean by themselves with a big performance, or get there anyway thanks to some help from turnovers.
One of the reasons the public (and too many in the media) complain about bad beats on favorites is that they don't understand how common turnovers are in these scenarios. They'll say "If not for turnovers, I would have been right about that one." If these guys weren't blind to the causes of turnovers, they wouldn't be suffering those bad beats. They'd be cashing tickets alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
If you're a do-it-yourself handicapper, see if you can spot some games on the college and pro cards this weekend where a favorite is likely to have a poorly executed game. I'm not suggesting they're everywhere on the schedule. But, these gems are waiting to be uncovered if you do some digging. Think about what causes turnovers for an offense...what defenses can do to force mistakes...and how those elements line up in each matchup this weekend.
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Back with you next week to talk more Las Vegas sports betting. Have a great Halloween (trick the oddsmakers so you keep all the treats!) and a huge weekend. My long term track record in the sports betting capital of the world proves it's ALWAYS time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!