Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 1:29 PM
Richie Baccellieri: Studying Profit/Loss Breakdowns at the All-Star Break
Throughout the All-Star Break, you've probably come across various "report cards" that have told you what you already knew about the best and worst betting teams so far in the 2017 Major League Baseball season. You know the Astros and Dodgers are on fire, and making a fortune (so far) for backers. You know the Chicago Cubs have been a disaster because the market thought they would still be about a 95-win team instead of one struggling to reach the .500 mark. You know the Giants have been a laughingstock.
Today, I wanted to focus on some lesser reported money performances.
Sharps tend to think "opposite" of the general public, which is why they're on the right side of the market while squares are on the wrong side. Instead of talking about winning teams who make money, and losing teams who burn it, let's turn that upside down.
WINNING TEAMS WITH WORST PROFIT PERFORMANCE
Cleveland (47-40): minus 18 units
NY Yankees (45-41): minus 8 units
Washington (52-36): minus 1 unit
Boston (50-39): minus 1 unit
All four of those teams are serious playoff contenders (futures prices have Cleveland, Washington, and Boston as virtual locks already to reach the postseason). Yet, none of them are up money at the All-Star Break. Cleveland is WAY down, because they've been the Cubs of the American League. This World Series entrant was supposed to be chomping at the bit to get back to the Fall Classic. They only recently made a surge past the .500 mark straight up.
Washington is so high priced on a nightly basis that they can be 16 games over .500 straight up while not earning a profit! They're on pace for 96 wins, but the moneylines treat them as a 105-win team. No value betting the Nats.
Boston looks like they're going to be priced like a 100-win team moving forward (even higher when Chris Sale is on the mound).
You will be tempted to back those four teams in the coming weeks because they're high profile media teams in "must-win" situations in the pennant race. That's already not working, and isn't likely to start. Furthermore, you should be prepared for the possibility that Houston and the LA Dodgers will be overpriced moving forward. Let's say they go into cruise control and win 60% of their games the rest of the way. That won't be enough to make money!
Squares will be betting all the playoff contenders on a daily basis, and will very likely take the worst of it.
LOSING TEAMS WITH BEST PROFIT PERFORMANCE
LA Angels (45-47): plus 6 units
Atlanta (42-45): plus 6 units
Texas (43-45): plus 1 unit
Chicago White Sox (38-49): plus 1 unit
San Diego (38-50): minus half a unit
San Diego isn't up money...but I wanted to include them because they were supposed to be a Triple A team masquerading in the big show. Some pundits said you should just bet against them every day because oddsmakers wouldn't be able to make their opponents high enough. Well, oddsmakers have done a pretty good job! Same with Chicago, the projected worst team in the AL.
Obviously the two teams that jump out there are the LA Angels and the Atlanta Braves. Both are up six units for the season. That may not strike you as much...but it's hard to make money backing teams every day against the vig. Credit to both rosters for exceeding expectations by that much. Let's keep an eye on both of those teams in the second half. The Angels may start playing like a Wildcard contender with Mike Trout back in the lineup. They aren't yet being overpriced.
Really, though, the big lesson in that chart is that it's hard to earn a profit just by looking for value with losing teams. Most losers are down money for the season. Sharps pick and choose the best spots rather than trying to ride teams on a daily basis. They'll take Atlanta with certain pitchers, or against certain opponents. They won't just ride the Braves every day and hope for the best. Even if it grinds out a slight profit with one or two teams, it obviously isn't working with teams similar in Power Ratings to the Braves like St. Louis, Miami, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Seattle. You're going to hope you pick the right mediocrity to bet for value?
Overall, I believe it's important to know which teams are being overrated and underrated by the marketplace. But, you still have to pick your spots to step in rather than just riding or fading teams without thinking through the process. Yes, handicapping seems really easy if you're a Dodgers fan and they go 24-6 over a 30-game stretch. That doesn't happen very often. And, when it does, the line usually gets up to where it should be just as the team cools off...forcing backers to return some of what they had earned.
If you'd like some help finding smart plays every night, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about monthly packages, or early bird football, call the office at 1-888-777-4155. I'm not the type to release "Game of the Month" or "Game of the Year" selections. You get my best shots every night, and we use proper bankroll management in hopes of building income through the year. I want you to think like a sharp, and BET like a sharp.
Thanks for reading. I hope you enjoyed a few days off from the baseball grind. Let's talk again next week!