Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Wednesday, July 19, 2017 at 5:11 PM
If you've been following the daily moneylines, you've probably noticed some HUGE line moves in recent days from the openers to the closers. Sharp action has been very aggressive since the All-Star Break. And, while they're not winning them all (so many games come down to late coin-flips), the sharps are generally getting the best of it.
What's going on?
First of all, the Wise Guys are keyed into a handful of teams that they want to either back or fade. Many are in love with the Toronto Blue Jays because of some analytics indicators. You saw the Blue Jays get hit hard in the first two games at Boston (right after the Red Sox played that grueling series against the Yankees). It was weird to see a team that far behind in the standings laying odds on the road to the first-place team two days in a row! But, you have to say that Toronto should have won both games.
The Chicago Cubs are also getting pounded by sharps. The go sign went out in the Baltimore series when it was clear Chicago was ready to make a move after struggling to reach .500 through the first half of the season. Also helping, Cubs lines had become affordable after the team had been overpriced in the opening months. This dynamic may not last long because the Cubs can become expensive quick. In the Baltimore and Atlanta matchups, they weren't expensive.
In terms of fades...sharps really think poorly of the Cincinnati Reds right now because of the lousy starting pitching staff, and overall malaise of the team. They're also ready to fade the Chicago White Sox at a moment's notice, a team that's trading away current starters to stockpile promising prospects. The cat may be out of the bag on those trends...but you should still keep an eye on them.
The big moves in the Detroit/Kansas City series either mean sharps are high on Detroit to start playing better, or skeptical that previously hot Kansas City is really a Wildcard threat. Maybe both! That's worth keeping an eye on as well.
I should also mention that some sharps are using this environment to set up profitable situations around pick-em. You've seen a few "flipped" favorites this week...where one team opens up around -115 of -120, only to see the line move so much that the other team closes as the favorite in a similar range. Sharps with a background in the investment world like to look for probable line moves around pick-em, and get in on both teams as a dog in the same game. That's a guaranteed profit no matter who wins. And, the heaviest hitters can create those almost on their own by POUNDING the early line so much that the market moves the other way to literally hand them the free money.
(Quick example from this week: on Monday, the Yankees opened around -117 on the dime line against Minnesota, but Minnesota closed at -117. Somebody with "perfect" timing could have gotten both dogs at +107. But, even just "smart" timing might have been around +104 or +103 either way, which is free money at max bets both ways.)
I can't end today's article without mentioning that you'd have to be CRAZY to try to force Over bets right now in this current market. Yes, there's a juiced ball in 2017. But, the line has more than adjusted after that early rash of Overs (particularly in the National League). Both leagues have been skewing Under of late. Did you notice that Tuesday's action went 4-11 to the Under? That's after a 4-7-2 day to the Under Monday on a lighter card.
Like always, sharps got the best of it early by betting Overs before the market adjusted. Wise Guys got off the horse just as squares jumped on it. Lately, the value has been on Unders...which is the opposite of how squares want to bet.
If you're reading these articles, I know YOU want to think and bet like a sharp rather than a square. I hope I've been able to help you do that. I'll be back in a week to talk some more about sharp betting in Major League Baseball. Soon, we'll be back to football, with the NFL Preseason now less than a month away.
My baseball has been on a very nice run since the season resumed. You regulars know I'm a "grind 'em out" handicapper. You get my best shots every night. We do our best to build and sustain a nice bankroll. You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about monthly packages, or early bird football, call the office at 1-888-777-4155.
Thanks for reading. This is a very important time of the season to monitor line moves. Please take a few extra minutes each day to write down the opening lines and the closing lines. That by itself will make you a better informed better because you'll have a sense of how sharps are attacking each day's card. See you next week.