Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, August 28, 2017 at 2:28 PM
I don't talk much about boxing here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting. And, I'm not really talking about boxing today even though I'm going to reference this past Saturday Night's spectacle here in Las Vegas featuring Floyd Mayweather and Colin McGregor. My point in bring up that bout is that it proved once again that there could be tremendous value in betting big favorites.
It's become overstated in the extreme that the best way to make money in sports betting is to focus on underdogs. While it's generally true that sports books shade the line against the public by adding 1-2 points to the prices of favorites. It's absolutely NOT true that oddsmakers know how to price all favorites in the first place! Sometimes they miss the mark by a mile. And, making what they think should be a 10-point favorite a 12-point favorite to trick the public doesn't mean anything if the RIGHT price in that game is 17 points, 21 points, or even more.
You longtime readers or followers of KELSO STURGEON know I find games like that every season. I'll tell you well in advance of kickoff that the favorite, by my measure, is 100% to win straight up, and about 90% to cover the spread. Though betting boxing is different than betting football because there's no pointspread. That's basically what we saw in Saturday night's fight. Mayweather was priced anywhere from -500 to -700 depending on the time you were betting and which sports book you had selected. The RIGHT price might have been -5000, and probably even higher. It's impossible to truly pinpoint how big a favorite Mayweather was because we had never seen anything like this...
*An undefeated champion taking on a non-boxer
*A skilled defensive master facing an opponent with no real offense
*A man well-trained in going the distance vs. an inexperienced foe who would run out of gas if the fight went long
Mayweather was going to win this fight barring a miracle or a direct act of god. McGregor doesn't hit hard enough in 8-ounce gloves to score a knockout. McGregor couldn't possibly have won that fight on points. THIS WAS A LOCK.
Sharps in Las Vegas bet this lock at 5-1, 6-1, or 7-1. There were multiple MILLION-DOLLAR bets to win around $200,000. Any sharp worth his salt had the biggest personal bet of their lives on Mayweather.
You've seen me do the equivalent of this time and time again, particularly in college football when we lay big favorites with multiple PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS that are actually very likely to DOUBLE the pointspread with their final victory margin.
*A superpower or talented mid-major is positioned to run up the score on an opponent that shouldn't even be on the same field.
*A team with an explosive offense or very physical defense is positioned to embarrass an opponent with no PLAYMAKERS.
*A deep favorite with a bench capable of adding to a victory margin that's going to wear down an undersized patsy with no good backups.
Hey, if oddsmakers priced those favorites at -50 points or -60 points, then we'd have to pass. But, as we saw in the fight, there's still enough of a "don't lay big prices" bias that actually keeps pointspreads well below where they should be in some cases.
Your homework for this week is to go through college football and circle possible "Mayweathers" across the sport. Don't just take the easy way out and looked for ranked teams or the handful of National Championship threats. Sometimes the best value bullies are the frontrunners in the Mountain West, Mid American, or Sun Belt conferences. Who will have a chance to perform like Mayweather against the weakest teams on their schedules?
Then, with that list...
*Go through their September non-conference schedules looking for blowouts
*Go through their regular season schedules looking for blowouts
*Try to find the spots where the opposing defense will have virtually no chance to get any stops when starters are on the field...or virtually no chance to score any points because they don't have any GAMEBREAKERS
This homework will put you very much in line with the mindset of The Dean of Sports Handicapping in these hours before the first full week of college football action. This is how I find my 100-unit, 200-unit, and 250-unit Game of the Month and Game of the Year caliber releases in most seasons. This is where the real value lies in games that you need to be betting the biggest.
If you still lack the confidence to go it alone, KELSO STURGEON'S BEST BETS can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the office during normal business hours at 1-800-755-2255, or on weekends before the first games get started.
I'll be back with you again later this week. It's very exciting that football's regular season is imminent. Even though I've been a professional handicapper for longer than many of you have been alive, I still feel like a little kid at the beginning of a new season. I trust that most of you are the same way. That's why you're attending this class. You're exciting about the chance to win some money! I'll do my level best to teach you what I know every time we get together here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting.