Submitted by Wayne Allyn Root on Thursday, April 30, 2015 at 6:41 PM
Wayne Root: Finding Over/Under "Shockers" in NBA Playoffs
Most of the space in my web articles is devoted to finding upsets or shockers from a team side perspective in the major betting sports. This transition time between the end of the first round and the beginning of the second round in the 2015 NBA Playoffs seemed like the ideal spot to talk about "shockers" of another kind.
Sometimes the best betting value in an NBA game is on the Over/Under. We've seen several examples already of "outlier" games that ended up very far away from the market expectation. In fact, we've seen some series alternate extremes from one game to the next.
*San Antonio/LA Clippers only saw 173 points scored in Game Three, but 219 points scored in regulation in Game Four. That's a 46 point leap.
*Houston/Dallas made it to an astounding 258 points after four quarters in Game three, yet only 197 in the series finale. A 61-point differential just two days apart.
*Cleveland/Boston reached 213 in the series opener, but never made it past even the 200 mark the rest of the way.
*Washington/Toronto limped to 164 points after 48 minutes in their series opener...yet topped 200 in every game after that. What looked like it was going to be a low-scoring defensive series really opened up.
How can handicappers find these outliers in advance? How can you apply the proven WAYNE ALLYN ROOT principles for finding team side upsets to totals surprises? I'm not going to give away all of my secrets, or talk about specific matchups in the second round. I need to protect that information for my clients. Here are some general tips:
*Totals right now are very much driven by how professional offenses attack. You want to look for Overs whenever one team is very aggressive about attacking the rim, and their opponent isn't very good at getting in the way defensively. Even though playoff tempo is historically slower than in the regular season...that becomes less of an issue if a motivated team knows it MUST fly at the rim to win the series.
*Other teams prefer working the ball for open looks on three-pointers. This leads to slow games, but higher scores than you'd expect because accurate three-point shooting really pushes scoring totals because of the increased efficiency. If an offense is matched up against a poor perimeter defense...then some of the games are going to fly Over the posted totals.
*On the other side of the coin, if offensive weaponry is counteracted in the examples I just described...you're going to see games stay way Under. Offenses relying on attacking the rim will just keep running into brick walls against great inside defenses. Offenses relying on treys won't get many open looks against good perimeter defenses.
I also want to note that the above tendencies can be magnified by where things stand in a series. You often see wide-open play in the first part of a series...which can drive the effective offenses to even bigger totals. You often see ultra-conservative play later in a series...which sticks an even bigger anvil on the worst offenses. The NBA is trending away from all of those 77-75 type games that the Knicks and the Heat used to play. They're not extinct yet.
So, as you handicap the opening round finales on the current schedule...and then the opening matchups in Round Two...think through the matchup dynamics to see if you can spot possible Over/Under "shockers." It's not likely that I'll write another "totals" themed piece in the playoffs...so keep this article handy for the conference finals and championship round too. It's so much fun to win bets by 20-30 points when the stars align!
If you'd like some help finding the top betting options on the board through the playoffs (and all summer long in Major League Baseball), you can purchase BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS during normal business hours. This is a great time to lock a plan into place from now through the NBA Championships in June or the MLB All-Star Break in July.
Never forget...I'm the only man in the sports betting industry that has a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas. I'm always a few steps ahead of the oddsmakers...so if an oddsmaker ever gets a star, his will naturally be a few steps behind mine! I've proven for decades that I can win year round in all sports. That's why WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is the acknowledged KING OF LAS VEGAS in this field! (The winner of Mayweather/Pacquiao will be king for a day, but this is ALWAYS my town!)
Back again with you next week for more handicapping talk. I hope you have a great sports weekend with the big fight, the Kentucky Derby, and the NBA Playoffs. With so much on the betting board...it's OBVIOUSLY time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!